Gonzaga -12.5 1st half 2**
St. Marys/Memphis OVER 140.5
Gonzaga -12.5 1st half 2**
St. Marys/Memphis OVER 140.5
Valparaiso +10.5 2**
2-2 Yesterday for +0.7 Units. Now 9-7 YTD for +7.1 Units
A tad worried that some of these “square fades” are quasi-square themselves, but sticking with the system. I suppose everyone wants to pick the big upset this time of year.
Davidson +3.5 3***
Bucknell +4 2**
Oregon +2 2**
St. Marys +1
That’s it for now. May add a few later as more money comes in. Good luck, and happy unproductivity this weekend!
I couldn’t help but feel all giddy this morning, as the NCAA Tournament kicks off around noon today. There are some interesting developments today in the betting markets, and a few teams stand out that could potentially tank or make a run. I’m buying and selling a few of each.
Florida. The Gators have been a tad cold lately after dropping a regular season game to Kentucky and losing in the SEC Championship. However, this is still the same team that shoots lights out from 3 and has one of the best coaches in the game. Couple this with a favorable draw and arguably the weakest 1 and 2 seeds in their region, and you create an opening for them to slide into the final four. Despite being a 3 seed, they remain the third choice at many sports books to cut down the nets.
Ohio State. The Buckeyes closed out the regular season with a Big Ten tournament victory, and are playing as well as any team in the country. They could run into a potentially tough matchup in the Sweet 16 against Arizona, but I like the path that’s been paved for them to Atlanta. Deshaun Thomas is one of the premier players in college ball, and most teams will have no answer for him.
Syracuse. They sputtered near the end of the regular season, but found their form again in the Big East Tournament before running into a buzzsaw that was Louisville. They’re long, athletic, and can shoot. They’ll be matchup hell for most teams in the tournament. I love the idea of them playing Indiana in the Sweet 16. The recent NCAA allegations are worrisome, but this team has had off-court issues all season.
Wisconsin. They beat Indiana and Michigan State twice during the regular season, make it to the Big 10 Tournament finals, and yet they still get no respect. Yes, their style is disgusting to watch, but it’s effective. Gonzaga can’t like seeing the Badgers on their side of the bracket.
Indiana. I hate to do it, but the Hoosiers are sputtering into the tournament. A few lackluster performances at the end of the regular season, and then an early exit from the Big 10 Tournament. In my opinion, they were very fortunate to get a 1 seed. That said, they still have one of the most complete teams in the country, and are very dangerous if they can regain their midseason form. In my opinion, Jordan Hulls is the X factor. I just feel they’re a tad overvalued here.
Gonzaga. They were 1-2 against ranked teams this season, yet they’re capitalizing on past tournament success and the name that they created for themselves to get a 1 seed. Don’t get me wrong, The Zags play good, smart basketball. However, they lack the athleticism to match up against the top teams in the country.
Marquette. The Golden Eagles had a good year, but this team lacks the leadership to make a run in the tournament. After losing Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom from last year’s squad, you can definitely say they overachieved this year and far surpassed expectations. However, they still struggle against good defensive teams. I’m expecting an early exit for them this year.
Louisville. This team possesses all of the important elements to cut down the nets – leadership, coaching, defense, and experience. If they shoot well from 3, the team can be scary good. That said, if they don’t shoot well(like they didn’t against Syracuse in the Big East tourney finals), they can still beat you with their defense. If they weren’t the overall number 1 seed, they’d be a screaming “buy.”
Miami. The Hurricanes are hot coming into the tournament, and have regained their early conference form. Given their style of play and relatively easy path to the Elite 8, I’m expecting this team to make a deep run. The primary concern for me is lack of experience in this situation, both no the coaching and playing front.
Let the games begin! I’m giddy as a fat kid in a candy store.
James Madison PICK 2**
2-1 CBB Yesterday for +2.8 Units, now 7-5 YTD for +6.4 Units.
Long Beach State +12.5 2**
Western Michigan PICK 2**
High Point +8.5
Ugly 0-3 day for -4.4 Units
Laying off today. Been burning money betting NBA lately, and not in love with anything on the card today.
In ancient times, The Great Sanhedrin was an assembly of 71 sages that ruled on important legal proceedings in Israel. In the event that there was a unanimous opinion for one side, that decision would typically get thrown out since it was likely that one side wasn’t presented adequately. These people realized that when everyone generally agreed, the consensus opinion was oftentimes wrong. The Sanhedrin is a great example of “herd mentality” being wrong, and shows that these people were far ahead of their time.
The principles of The Sanhedrin can be applied stock picking, sports betting, etc. If and when you see something that’s just too good to be true, be on high alert. A great example of this in the investing world was Apple this past year. Only a few months ago, everyone was on board this freight train, looking for a move up to $1000 per share. There were countless articles in financial publications, pundits on CNBC, and general people not even involved in markets that all believed they were going to get rich off this stock that had already appreciated astronomically. At the point where everyone is on board with a thesis, that’s the time to fade it. Since the “euphoria” stage in AAPL, we’ve seen a decline of about 30% in less than a year. In markets, the crowd is usually wrong.
Last night, we saw a similar example of how consensus thinking can be wrong with the Kentucky versus Robert Morris matchup. We have the defending national champions that boast the number 1 recruiting class in the country versus a nobody, and they’re only giving 4 points?!? This is just too easy. Caveat emptor-Vegas does not give money away. Had you perused a few of the online sports forums, you’d think the UK/Robert Morris line was the equivalent of the Bunny Ranch offering freebies to those willing to just show up and take their pants off. If and when something seems too good to be true, it most certainly is.
This is just one example of fading the crowd, but it was an excellent one. In sports betting, nothing is ever a easy as it seems. For a good(and quick) read about herd mentality and why most are generally wrong, I highly recommend Humphrey Neill’s classic The Art of Contrary Thinking. It will help you in all walks of life, and teach you to think in different terms. As Denzel said in the famous flick Training Day, “It’s chess, not checkers.”
1-1-1 Yesterday, 0-1 on 3***, push on 2** -2.3 Units
Portland +5 2**
Oklahoma City -9.5
New System, New Tracking. Rolling over Friday’s 5-4 Record for +3.6 Units
Already locked in play of the day Robert Morris +4 for 3***
Middle Tennessee +3 2**
Louisiana Tech +3 2**
Robert Morris +4 3***
How do you not bet Kentucky in this perceived mismatch? What most bettors aren’t realizing is that UK’s players have checked out for the season and are worried about the NBA draft and not the NIT. I expect a very uninspired performance from the Wildcats, while Robert Morris has the opportunity to be a big-name team. The big question is whether or not Robert Morris has enough talent to win even with UK playing their worst game. I think so.